Bomb North Korea, Before It’s Too Late
AUSTIN, Tex.
SINCE
February, the North Korean government has followed one threatening move
with another. The spiral began with an underground nuclear test. Then
the North declared the armistice that ended the Korean War invalid. The
young dictator Kim Jong-un followed with a flurry of threats to attack
civilian targets in South Korea, Japan and the United States.
Earlier this week, North Korea
closed the Kaesong Industrial Complex, the only facility where citizens
from North and South Korea work together. And now the North is openly
threatening (and visibly preparing) to fire a mobile-launcher-based
Musudan missile with a range that could reach many of the places Mr. Kim
has menaced in his public statements. American intelligence agencies
believe that North Korea is working to prepare even longer-range
delivery systems to carry the nuclear warheads already in its arsenal.
The
Korean crisis has now become a strategic threat to America’s core
national interests. The best option is to destroy the North Korean
missile on the ground before it is launched. The United States should
use a precise airstrike to render the missile and its mobile launcher
inoperable.
President
Obama should state clearly and forthrightly that this is an act of
self-defense in response to explicit threats from North Korea and clear
evidence of a prepared weapon. He should give the leaders of South
Korea, Japan, China and Taiwan advance notice before acting. And he
should explain that this is a limited defensive strike on a military
target — an operation that poses no threat to civilians — and that
America does not intend to bring about regime change. The purpose is to
neutralize a clear and present danger. That is all.
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If
North Korea is left to continue its threatening behavior, it will
jeopardize the fragile economies of the region and it will encourage
South Korea and Japan to develop their own nuclear weapons
— a policy already advocated by hawks in both countries. Most of all,
North Korean threats will encourage isolated states across the world to
follow suit. The Iranians are certainly watching. If North Korea can use
its small nuclear arsenal to blackmail the region with impunity, why
shouldn’t the mullahs in Tehran try to do the same?
The
United States and its allies in East Asia have a legitimate right to
self-defense and they have a deep interest in deterring future threats
on this scale.
Thanks
to precise satellite reconnaissance, striking the North Korean missile
on the ground would be much easier than after it was launched. Since the
United States cannot possibly know the missile’s trajectory before a
launch, and Mr. Kim has said he is targeting America and its allies, we
have reason to believe that civilians face serious danger.
Since
a missile on the ground is an obvious and largely undefended target, we
can be reasonably sure that a strike would destroy it and preserve
regional stability and the safety of our allies. An American pre-emptive
strike would also re-establish necessary red lines for North Korea and
other countries in similar circumstances.
As
President Xi Jinping of China stated earlier this month, “No one should
be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for
selfish gains.” By eliminating the most recent North Korean missile
threat, the United States will reduce the threat posed by the North’s
arsenal. The United States would also reassure everyone in the region,
and those watching from other parts of the world, that although it is
not seeking regime change, America and its allies will not be
blackmailed by threatened missile launches.
The
North Korean government would certainly view the American strike as a
provocation, but it is unlikely that Mr. Kim would retaliate by
attacking South Korea, as many fear. First, the Chinese government would
do everything it could to prevent such a reaction. Even if they oppose
an American strike, China’s leaders understand that a full-scale war
would be far worse. Second, Mr. Kim would see in the American strike a
renewed commitment to the defense of South Korea. Any attack on Seoul
would be an act of suicide for him, and he knows that.
A
war on the Korean Peninsula is unlikely after an American strike, but
it is not inconceivable. The North Koreans might continue to escalate,
and Mr. Kim might feel obligated to start a war to save face. Under
these unfortunate circumstances, the United States and its allies would
still be better off fighting a war with North Korea today, when the
conflict could still be confined largely to the Korean Peninsula. As
North Korea’s actions over the last two months have shown, Mr. Kim’s
government is willing to escalate its threats much more rapidly than his
father’s regime did. An unending crisis would merely postpone war to a
later date, when the damage caused by North Korea would be even greater.
China’s
role in a potential war on the Korean Peninsula is hard to predict.
Beijing will continue to worry about the United States extending its
influence up to the Chinese border. If armed hostilities erupt,
President Obama should be prepared for direct and close consultations
with Chinese leaders to negotiate a postwar settlement, in a larger
multinational framework, that respects Beijing’s legitimate security
interests in North Korea. The United States has no interest in occupying
North Korea. The Chinese are unlikely to pursue an occupation of their
own.
Destroying
the North Korean missile before it is launched is the best of bad
options on the Korean Peninsula. A prolonged crisis would undermine
regional security and global efforts to stop nuclear proliferation. And a
future war would be much worse. The most prudent move is to eliminate
the most imminent military threat in self-defense, establish clear and
reasonable limits on future belligerence, and maintain allied unity for
stability — not forced regime change — in the region. This is the kind
of pre-emptive action that would save lives and maybe even preserve the
uneasy peace on the Korean Peninsula.
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